Disclaimer: I think that Iowa being first isn’t that bad. It’s just that North Carolina would be better. Also, I am from NC and readily admit my bias. Also, also, while I have worked in politics for several years a decision on this matter is way above my pay grade. So at best this is meant as a fun little thought experiment.
I am writing this before the Iowa results come out so I hope no one will accuse me of being salty about the results. And to be completely honest, I haven’t checked the polls in my state in a long time so I’m not trying to advocate for one candidate over the other.
I’ve actually tried really hard to remain mostly neutral during the primary. I’ll vote for anyone over Trump. Except like…if somehow Trump Jr. got the Democratic nomination and those were my only choices because we lived in a North Korea style authoritarian dictatorship. (Coming Soon!)
However, I think everyone is aware of the issues people have raised about the Iowa caucus. There are benefits too of course, but I think that North Carolina can improve on those as well as the negative points.
Problem #1: Iowa isn’t diverse
This is the issue that I’ve seen brought up most often when I hear people talk about why Iowa shouldn’t go first. It’s a valid point. Iowa is about 90% White as of the last census which is way above the country as a whole.
North Carolina on the other hand is 68% White and ~21.5% African American. Our state is actually more diverse than the country as a whole with a large Hispanic population as well. The image of North Carolina politics is still one of an antebellum South dominated by old white people and…it kind of is…
But I blame that on Republican gerrymandering rather than a true representation of the state. The reality is that people from all over the country and the world are moving to our state because of a growing economy and excellent schools. It’s this influx that’s driving the purpling of our politics and is a trend that is likely to continue.
Problem 2: Iowa is small
I think this problem is in fact something of a benefit to Iowa going first. Some people have talked about letting larger states, like Illinois, go first because they represent more Americans. The downside to that is it’s expensive to run a campaign in a state like that.
If you have to buy media and hire staff in areas like Chicago, New York, or L.A. from the start, then a lot of smaller campaigns won’t be able to compete. Even massive fundraisers like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would likely struggle having to spend in those expensive markets early in the race against a crowded field. Billionaires like Bloomberg would be the only ones able to campaign there effectively.
So small is good. However, North Carolina is a heck of a bargain. It’s the 9th largest state by population but our two biggest cities are in the 23rd and 25th biggest media markets, which means they’re relatively cheap. I know for a fact that airtime in Wilmington, a significant population center in its own right, is dirt cheap. If you want bang for the buck then it’s hard to find a better place than North Carolina.
Problem 3: Caucuses are bad
This is probably the most contentious problem that people raise about Iowa. I can understand the appeal of gathering with your neighbors to discuss the merits of candidates and literally standing up to be counted. I also know that people take politics way too seriously so having to spend several hours in a room full of strangers arguing politics is not my idea of a good time.
It’s also true that caucusing is a significant time commitment. I support being able to change your vote if your first choice doesn’t win but I also don’t want to have a bunch of other candidate supporters cajoling me into choosing to join them. Plus I’m just a shy person so would rather not have to deal with people in general.
These reasons are all valid but more importantly, caucusing can be a burden on people with disabilities. Also folks who can’t get out of work for the long periods needed to caucus. People with small children. All sorts of issues that might prevent someone from being able to participate in the process. Democracy is supposed to be accessible to all and anything that makes that harder is not great.
North Carolina has a balloted primary along with a few weeks of early voting. Is it perfect? No, of course not. We can always improve, but many of the issues with caucuses are not present in primaries.
What about all the good reasons for Iowa going first though?
Like I said, there are certainly reasons for Iowa to go first. Tradition is important and they’ve been first for long enough for it to seem like something that will always be so. Iowans take their place in choosing Presidential candidates seriously.
I think we all would though if the candidates came around every four years and aggressively campaigned everywhere. I think anyone who wants to be President should have to get out among the people and actually talk to them and Iowa is a decent place to do that.
But North Carolina would be better.
North Carolina is not only demographically diverse we are also diverse in our geography. There are big cities and small towns. Farms and tech companies. Mountains and coastline. A real subsection of America in every way.
Obviously I’m biased but I think North Carolinians would relish the chance to be in the lead on primaries. We’re an important swing state so both parties care about winning here. We’re far enough down the coast to avoid the “east coast elite” moniker but not so far that we’re stuck with the connotations of being “Deep South”.
The South is shifting politically, however. It is a slow shift but it’s moving. Republicans will want to try and maintain their control and Democrats are hoping to nudge us more firmly on their side. Iowa will likely be forgotten by campaigns as soon as the primary is finished, North Carolina will stay in play right up until the election.
When you think about it North Carolina would make for a far more representative first contest for both parties without sacrificing many of the logistical reasons that Iowa brings to the table.
I know it will likely never happen. Inertia is the biggest force in politics. But it would be nice to stick it to South Carolina and steal their primary season thunder. Also it would be better for democracy…not just because we want to show up our rivals to the south…promise.
Also we were First in Flight and one of the first colonies so we’ve got a lot of historical clout as well. Our winters are milder than Iowa. It would be the height of basketball season.
It just makes too much sense.
