A lot of build up went in to the premier political event of the season, the Democratic Party Debates.
To simply say the field is crowded is like saying Donald Trump is bad at his job. A massive understatement to say the least. Twenty candidates went up on stage, broken up into two groups of ten. I can’t imagine how chaotic the event would have been if it hadn’t been split in half.
I took some rather copious notes to tell the truth. Because I’m unemployed and my time has little value at the moment. Also I am in fact that much of a political nerd. It’s unfortunate that I haven’t found a way to steadily monetize such rigorous passion yet.
In truth, I wanted to be on the look out for accusations of “not getting enough time to speak” so I wrote down every time a candidate had the focus and some notes about what they said when they did. This isn’t precisely as accurate as counting the amount of speaking time by the second as some observers have done. But I saw that Andrew Yang had the least amount of speaking time and Biden had the most, which tracks with my count.
It also was entirely unnecessary since no one seems to care about how much time they had or not. At least, not enough to complain too much about it. I guess everyone understood how much of a mess it would be. (To be fair to the moderators I thought they did a fine job with the enormity of the task they were given.)
What was the point of these debates though?
In my view, the purpose was to give a chance for each candidate to prove that they deserved to be the chosen one to face Trump in electoral combat. There are a lot of factors to consider: policy (past, present, and future), personal story, reasons for running, etc.
This article is centered around my opinion of which of these candidates should continue on and who should accept that they took their shot and pack it up. And we all know how great other people’s opinions are. Regardless, twenty options is too many when it comes to something as simple as breakfast cereal let alone candidates for President. Seriously, how different are the various types of Captain Crunch anyway?
We don’t need this many campaigns. It’s great that we do and everyone of them would make a much better POTUS than Trump. That’s a pretty low bar but it’s true. Because for all their faults no one in the mix is a blatant traitor/gleeful racist/accused rapist/etc.
Anyway, I’ve grouped the candidates into three loose categories. Their placement is based on my instincts when it comes to what makes a good candidate, what I personally understand about where the Democratic Party is at right now, and if I think they’ll ultimately be good at the job as well as help other down ballot races win in 2020.
The last part is important because the Presidential candidate doesn’t exist in a vacuum. No matter who wins they won’t be able to accomplish much if they have to deal with a Republican House and/or Senate. And given that 2020 is a census year, State Legislatures are absolutely vital, especially since the Supreme Court said it was ok for political parties to gerrymander the districts in their favor.
So, finally, the categories:
You Can Stay –For the candidates that I think should keep up their campaigns until the actual votes start to happen. These are the ones the voters should have a chance to weigh in on. Not precisely saying they should be President, but you can’t win it if you’re not in it.
Try Something Else – The candidates that aren’t terrible or whatever but would probably be better off doing something else in politics, at least for now. Not everyone can be President this cycle, there are a lot of other important roles outside of the White House.
Thank You, Next – These folks honestly shouldn’t have gotten involved in the first place. This list includes the five people running that didn’t make the debates, who I’m not going to bother to name. This isn’t college basketball, if you can’t make it into the Top-20 then why are you wasting your time? It sounds harsh but this is too crucial of an election to be flippant about it.
Now…I’m going to put these lists in alphabetical order to try and mask my bias as much as possible. Though I suppose that’s mostly gone out the window with the categories themselves but I’m still need to preserve some of my job prospects. I mean…objectivity…that’s it…
Thank You Next
John DeLaney – Spoke 7 times
DeLaney has been running forever. Seriously, he declared in 2017. I often see people declare for a race and not get any attention because the political zeitgeist has decided they’re not a serious contender. That’s been DeLaney’s entire campaign.
His platform might have earned him a respectable third place finish in the Republican primaries, thirty years ago. Today he’s just one of many Democrats too “liberal” to be a Republican but thinks that the rest of the party is simply crying out for a center-right moderate to give them common sense incremental changes that might solve their problems. Because nothing excites the base like not taking risks or dreaming big.
There are quite a few of these in the running right now.
Tulsi Gabbard – Spoke 8 times
Gabbard wants you to know that she was in the military and that means she can run a country.
Given the crowded field a number of candidates at the bottom tier are focusing on a single aspect of their candidacy in order to stand out. You might refer to it as “one note” if you were so inclined.
It’s a strategy I understand. You have to distinguish yourself on some level. However, it may come as a shock but a fair number of politicians have been in the military. Turns out there are a lot of transferable skills that mesh well between the careers. The good politicians don’t make their military service the only reason to vote for them though.
Gabbard on the other hand came out and said we should all move on from the Mueller report. She has some suspicious connections with people like Assad in Syria and her past beliefs on the LGBT community can’t be pasted over with a few empty comments. Plus, she talks about not getting into wars with the same tone as someone who really wants to be in a war. It’s unsettling to say the least. Couple that with the fact that she seems to be a favorite of Russian troll farms and she should be a hard pass for most.
Tim Ryan – Spoke 8 times
I literally only knew who this guy was because I somehow got on his email list and he constantly sent me weird fundraising emails. (To be fair most all of the Democrats are doing weird things with email these days)
He didn’t say anything outrageous or anything. Gabbard did try and pick a fight with him about his willingness to avoid pulling troops out of Afghanistan immediately. Not sure why she thought trying to take this guy down would be a good strategy. Perhaps she just took the opportunity when she saw it.
The fact that I’ve talked more about another candidate than Ryan himself says a lot. He had a chance to make an impression but failed. Another conservative Democrat who thinks that’s what the party is after.
Eric Swalwell – Spoke 11 times
Swalwell has apparently settled on a strategy of trying to take the “youthful generation” candidate moniker from Mayor Pete. Which is a bold choice. He took quite a few swipes at Biden for being old and tries to seem hip and clever. He was born in 1980 though which is a little on the edge for trying to claim to be a Millennial. So it comes off as that guy who graduated from high school a few years ago trying to get invited to the Senior parties.
He does a good job of pushing the field on tackling gun violence but it’s not enough to separate him from the pack. Most Democrats agree on the broad strokes and the only place to go further on the subject is the kind of thing that sends the NRA bigwigs off to pop bottles at the club. (Using membership dues of course.)
Marianne Williamson – Spoke 7 times
I’m not entirely sure that Williamson wasn’t stoned on stage. She was hopped up on something, even if it was just crystal energy.
I know I should try and be fair and whatever but Twitter has been having a field day with her goofy old tweets. During the debate I fully expected her at one point to mention a multi-level marketing scheme she was involved in and wanted to recruit America into a once in a lifetime opportunity.
It’s fun to joke about this kind of silliness but Trump was a goofy joke of a candidate at this point in the 2016 primaries. Also, as many people have pointed out, she seemed woefully unprepared for the task of becoming President. As such she’s really the only candidate that I would seriously regret having to vote for over Trump. Hopefully Democrats are too savvy to transfer meme magic into real support.
Andrew Yang – Spoke 5 times
Look, I wouldn’t mind having $1000 given to me every month. Especially since I can’t keep a job it seems. Universal Basic Income is a bold thing to choose as your “one note” and it is something that should be discussed given where technology is going.
But he wants to add a European style Value Added Tax which is like a scalable sales tax. Without addressing any of the other European style safety net features that come with something like a VAT. I hear the word “data” get thrown around with Yang a lot but it seems too thin to me. Also he’s got secret/not so secret “let just give the conservatives a chance” vibes going on which is a sure fire way to get canceled on Twitter.
Try Something Else
Michael Bennet – Spoke 9 times
A lot of people in this category fall into a similar pattern. Experienced politicians with good records but are trying to be too conservative.
I get that America is a moderate country on average and I also understand that some things need to be carefully considered. He made a good point that it’s hard to compare Canada with 35 million people and their ability to do universal healthcare and the USA with 350+ million people.
But a large part of the role of President is to inspire and lead. Given that, leaning too heavily on being in the middle is not something that spurs people to go out and vote. The President steers the ship of state they say. So of course you want someone that is going to steer it well. But you get on the boat because you’re interested in where it’s going.
Bill de Blasio – Spoke 6 times
It seemed like he spoke more times than he did because he tried the “shout the loudest and eventually you’ll get recognized” technique quite a lot.
He also did this thing a fair number of white men try and that’s to offer up any experience they might have that is similar to a minority’s experience as evidence that they “get it”. Even I have tried this before. (Guess what? It’s not effective.)
In Japan I experienced some mild racism. That doesn’t mean I “get” what it’s like to be black in America. Bill de Blasio had some good things to say and claims to be making progress in NYC. He should probably stay there though.
Kirsten Gillibrand – Spoke 10 times
This was a tough choice because I like Gillibrand. Her strategy seemed divided among two different options though during the debates. She tried to both challenge Amy Klobuchar as a red state winner that can beat Trump and to be the ultimate champion for women’s rights. Again, the base of the party isn’t looking to moderate. They’d rather drag conservatives over to them. Also, you won’t get far in the race saying “Women’s rights? Pfft. Who cares?”
The Republicans already claimed that niche.
The result is an overall weaker package which is fine for the Senate and maybe President in a less crowded field but just isn’t enough to lift her into the top tier this time around.
John Hickenlooper – Spoke 7 times
Not a whole lot to say about Hickenlooper. Another one of these guys that thinks the way to win is to be moderate and pound a record of accomplishment that no one outside of your state has probably heard of.
One stand out thing is that he said Republicans would call Democrats socialist unless we moderate. Which is silly. They’re going to do that no matter what. I don’t know why he thinks they won’t. Trump would call Reagan a socialist if he was running today.
It’s that kind of astute reading of the political landscape that got him placed in this tier.
Jay Inslee – Spoke 5 times
I had to go back to my notes to remind myself what Inslee was about. I remember now that he’s the environment guy but it was hard recall that without help.
Another moderate running on his record. Though he is also a one note type candidate and his note is climate change. It’s a good note to have to be sure. But like all one note strategies it traps you in a box.
Everyone in the Democratic party agrees that climate change is a serious threat. Honestly, we don’t need a whole debate on the subject. Republicans don’t think it’s happening at all. If you care about climate change you’re not voting GOP.
He should maybe run for Senate. Except his state of Washington has two women Democrats for their Senators. So…maybe not then. Governor is a nice gig.
Amy Klobuchar – Spoke 9 times
Klobuchar leaned heavily into her record of winning in red areas of the country therefore she can beat Trump. So much so that I’m inclined to call it her “one note”.
I understand the argument from a statewide perspective but in my limited experience it doesn’t play out the same on a national level. People have different ideas about what their President should be as opposed to their Senator or Member of Congress.
The scope is simply too wide for this argument to apply, in my book. And if that’s all you’ve got then it won’t be enough.
Beto O’Rourke – Spoke 10 times
O’Rourke probably had the most to lose coming into the debates. He got a lot of attention because of his viral run for the Senate last year. After the initial interest wore off, however, his Presidential aspirations seemed to be deflating.
Then he went ahead and got taken to task on his border and immigration stance by his fellow Texan, Julián Castro, despite O’Rourke’s attempts to connect with the Latino community by breaking out his over practiced Spanish. You could tell he was practicing those lines in the mirror constantly. Even if he didn’t they read that way and Presidential politics is all about perception.
I’ve thought for a long time that Beto should be running for Senate again in Texas instead. Since he announced really. It’s more his lane right now. I don’t think he was quite ready for the step up. Maybe he can pull it back together but it will be hard to capture that same spark.
Bernie Sanders – Spoke 14 times
This was another difficult choice. Not so much between this category and the next, rather between this one and the previous. Perhaps I still have left over sore feelings about Bernie from 2016. That’s entirely possible. I’m not a fan of how cultish that some of his supporters can be. It reminds me of Trump far more than it should. I’m not a fan that Bernie stays on the outside of the party when it suits him and then demands to be accommodated by the organization whenever he so desires.
As an admitted party hack, I get far more annoyed at that aspect than a lot of people. But yes, he has some good ideas. He was instrumental in driving the party left, which is a good place for it to be. But listening to him at the debates it’s clear he hasn’t changed at all from 2016. And despite what far too many of his supporters choose to believe, he had a fair chance to win and lost.
The only reason I can’t dismiss him outright is because of the support he has. I just wish he used it to rally the base and pressure the candidates to hold to his ideals. I don’t know why he needs to be President. The question every candidate needs to answer first and foremost is “Why you?”
Why should you, you specifically be President? That’s the core of all of this. Last time Bernie’s answer was “because I have the better, more progressive ideas”. That’s still his only answer this time around and it’s no longer true. He shouldn’t get the nomination just because he feels we owe him one. That’s what the Republicans did during the Obama years and look how that turned out.
(Cue Hillary Clinton whataboutism here)
You Can Stay
Joe Biden – Spoke 16 times
The frontrunner since he announced, Biden is not going away any time soon. Despite his continued poor handling of the issues raised during the debate.
The common wisdom is that he lost big time due to Sen. Harris taking him to task (rightfully so) on his past views on busing and his coziness with Dixiecrats. And it does seem that a large chunk of his support has abandoned ship. Still, I struggled with whether or not to change his placement from when I wrote the first draft and now. Over the weekend Biden still showed he was unwilling to account for his past beliefs that are hard to defend in 2019.
I still think that’s not likely to cause him to lose much support from his base, which are older Democrats. That’s why people like Swalwell tried so hard to “take the torch” from Biden and talk about generational change. They think that the core of the Democratic party is young people, which to a certain extent it is.
A lot of activists and folks that do the hard work of campaigns are indeed young. But young people still have abysmal voting turnout numbers. I’ve seen it. It seems like for young folks either you really care about politics, or you absolutely don’t care at all. That’s changing perhaps but likely not in time for 2020.
The people who still show up to the meetings and shape the course of the Democratic party as an organization are frequently older. Biden appeals to those folks but unlike other moderates he still has a way of making it seem like there’s still hope for liberal ideas. He probably got that from Obama, which is his other major strength. All that previous White House experience under one of the most popular Democratic Presidents in history. (Among his own party at least)
Biden got rattled pretty hard during the debates and that could easily spell the end of his campaign at some point. But I think he needs to be on the primary ballot. It’s hard to discount all of the institutional experience and backing he has. Hopefully he can learn from his mistakes. If not, at least he’ll generate a much needed dialog.
Cory Booker – Spoke 12 times
Booker is a swell guy. He covered a lot of areas where he’s taken criticism before, like on Big Pharma and such. I think he might have benefitted by not going against Bernie Sanders this time around or else he might have been challenged on that a little more.
I think he has a good personal story as well helped by the fact that he does live in a low income neighborhood so he’s closer to a lot of the issues facing a majority of Americans every day.
A lot of the people in this group would probably make a better VP than POTUS and I think Booker falls into that category. That could easily change of course as the field gets more focused and that is what the list is really about. Who should be in the top tier so that we get to know them better and Booker reaches that level for me without question. Plus his Twitter game is rather of the “fire” nature.
Pete Buttigieg – Spoke 12 times
There’s a quote by Kurt Vonnegut that goes something like:
“True terror is to wake up one day and discover that your high school class is running the country.”
I’m not sure if it’s just a comment on the nature of aging or the realization that all humans are kind of dumb and someone’s got to be in charge. When it suddenly becomes the people you grew up with all illusions that folks know what they’re doing goes right out the window.
That being said, Mayor Pete is literally my high school class. We were both born in ’82. I suppose I should be somewhat disappointed in myself that Buttigieg has accomplished so much and I so little in roughly the same amount of time on Earth. (Though he does have an extra eight months on me, which should count for something)
Buttigieg is certainly impressive, though there is a lot to be said about electoral experience, not just having a good resume. He is under some fire right now with a policing issue going on in his town where another black person was killed by a white officer. Other things have crowded out this kind of issue from the top of the zeitgeist but that doesn’t mean it’s gone away. It will be interesting to see how he handles things. It’s not likely to go well for him but for now it seems like he’s doing the best he can. Better than Biden is dealing with his issues at least.
That’s why he’s on this list, to see how he handles real pressure.
Julián Castro – Spoke 9 times
Castro was the Twitter winner of the first debate for how he took down Beto O’Rourke. Plus he had the best bumper sticker line “Adios to Trump” of the night.
Aside from the horserace stuff he also did well talking about other things that are inclusive for most of the party without being one note. I don’t know too much about him though since most of the attention that he should have gotten went to Beto instead. Which is perhaps why he knew to go after him. It shows savvy that’s for sure. Castro is high on the list of “Perhaps better at VP” candidates but it would be good to hear more from him.
Kamala Harris – Spoke 13 times
Harris is the Twitter champion of night two. I’ve been a personal fan since she grilled former AG Jeff Sessions in a Senate hearing. That seems so long ago now. Decades even. But no, not that long at all really.
The point is that Harris knows how to strike quickly and with serious effect. She’s not at all cowed by the challenge ahead and would definitely be the best person to debate Trump. Hillary Clinton won the debates though and that didn’t matter. And at this point it’s almost naïve to think that Trump will even agree to debates in the first place. Still, it would be one hell of a show.
I think Harris has a broad range of ideas and policy plans that would do well to bring people to the polls. Yet she’s still floating around the bottom of the pack (among strong candidates that is). Hopefully this performance will continue boost the attention she receives. But I swear I’m not biased.
Since the debates she was attacked by some rather strong birtherism type bullshit from the Russian troll bot army. So that shows that someone is worried about her at least. Which is a good sign.
Elizabeth Warren – Spoke 9 times
Last on this lengthy tome but certainly not least Warren has been climbing the ranks for a while now. Her candidacy has shown just how fickle and somewhat pointless a lot of the analysis surrounding the whole thing has been.
It wasn’t that long ago that her campaign was apparently running out of money and the whole effort was doomed. Now she might be able to claim frontrunner status. The one thing that hasn’t changed is that she keeps putting out really good plans to fix real problems. That’s the difference between her and Bernie, with whom a lot of her support overlaps. Bernie says this is how things should be and Warren says this is how I’m going to do it.
She’s also doing an excellent job of connecting with voters. I’m considering donating just to see if she’ll actually call me. But did I mention I was unemployed? Yeah. Probably should hold off on that. If Warren doesn’t end up winning the nomination I’d actually like to see her take over leadership of the Senate Democratic Caucus. I’m pretty sure I’m the only person who’s thought to suggest such a role for her but I think it would fit her skill set perfectly.
End of List
All right, if you’ve read this far you’ve read enough. If you’re from one of these campaigns and my analysis didn’t immediately put me on a blacklist I’m accepting job offers at my Twitter handle @politijmbo because I don’t want to just throw my email address out into the internet like that.
Thanks for tuning in.
